What Markets Really Do on Jobs Day — MM #117

The NFP always moves markets, but how exactly? We look at the bigger picture of the market impact, continue with previewing the ECB and finish with discussing more events on the calendar.

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  1. NFP Impact: The Non-Farm Payrolls report always leaves its mark on currency and stock markets. We examine USD/JPY and the S&P index. We look at the reactions using Bayesian analysis and reach interesting conclusions. The reaction depends on the direction of travel as well.
  2. ECB Preview: Magician Mario Draghi returns to the scene, this time with a fresh disappointment on inflation and fresh forecasts. Will they do something? Can they?
  3. Preview: After Labor Day in the US, markets are in 100% full steam. Apart from the ECB meeting, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 2 additional rate decisions dot the calendar.

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