Where Are The Wage Hikes? — MM #151

The latest US jobs report is out and the picture is becoming clearer: more job gains, no pay rise. We tackle all the aspects of the labor market, looking for the elusive inflation, the Fed reaction and what’s next for the dollar.

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  1. Wages are really stuck: We explain how wages are not moving at all, and for those that use the classic Phillips curve, the models need to be brushed off.
  2. Looking for other figures: If the unemployment rate isn’t relevant, what numbers should we be looking at?
  3. What does the NFP mean for the FED?: Is this enough for the Fed to raise rates? The hawks are now in control but will the closeted doves come out?
  4. The US dollar: The greenback, like the Fed, is data dependent. They have a lot of time to tell us what they want to do, if they know what they want to do.
  5. A hot summer ahead: Will the Fed provide a hint during the summer? And who will actually run the Fed next year? A lot of uncertainty could turn into volatility.
  6. Preview: The big events of the week continue where the previous week left us off. We will hear from the Fed Chair in two days of testimony and we will get an updated inflation number.

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