Yield Curve Blues and Sparks in Oil — MM #164

The yield curve is flattening and this serves as a warning sign of an upcoming recession. Are the worries justified? We begin with this and continue to the breakout in oil prices.

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  1. Flattening yield curve: In the past, when long-term yields fell to short-term levels, a recession came. We are seeing some signs of that and pundits are worried despite strong growth. Why aren’t long-term yields rising? What role does the Fed have in these recent moves? Will this impact the Fed’s policy? Investors are confused and we try to explain.
  2. Oil prices: We finally have a breakout in oil prices, to the highest levels since 2015. What is driving the move? Is it justified? Can prices continue rising? We analyze all the factors: from Saudi politics, OPEC policies, US production after the hurricanes, future prices and lots more.
  3. Preview: Things are certainly warming up to the all-important pain point: inflation in the US. Also watch out for German growth, top-tier UK data and the US retail sales report.

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