Festive Fed, Dovish Draghi, and a Global Trade War — MM #181

Markets are on the move and we tackle the main topics head on the Fed’s hawkish hike, the pessimism from the ECB, and the trade wars which may not be priced in.

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  1. Happy Fed: Powell and co. not only hiked but signaled more hikes and announced press conferences. Their forecasts are somewhat confusing though, and perhaps their optimism is not justified. We discuss all the aspects of the decision, the US economy, and the implications for markets.
  2. Sad ECB: On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank took baby steps to exit their stimulus but wrapped it up with much caution that the euro tumbled down quite sharply. We dive into the issues of the old continent and Draghi’s press conference.
  3. Trade wars: More tariffs, counter tariffs, worsening relations, and uncertainty that is already taking its toll. Yet markets are still in the “buy the dip” mentality. Do they think that Trump will not go over the cliff? What do they know? We analyze everything that is going on with trade on three fronts. Maybe only a stock market crash can turn Trump back.
  4. Preview: Trade remains left, right and center, but quite a few events are spread out in the last two weeks of Q2, including further Brexit action, the EU Summit, and final GDP figures for the US.

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