Financial Market Outlook for July 25-29

The ECB and BOE didn’t change their policy and now the markets will shift their attention to the FOMC and BOJ; the Fed and Bank of Japan aren’t expected to introduce new policy measures but the tone of their statements could still likely to move markets. Besides these two major events, other reports to consider include: U.S. GDP, EU flash CPI, U.S. core durable goods, Canada’s GDP, U.S. news and pending home sales, EU monetary development, GB GDP, and U.S. consumer confidence. So let’s examine the main events for the week of July 25th to 29th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 25th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of July. In the June report, the business climate index picked up to 108.7; currently, the market expects a modest fall to 107.7;

Tuesday, July 26th

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for June, consumer confidence index rose to 98. The current estimates are that the index fell back to 95.6;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will pertain to June; in the last report (opens pdf file), the sales of new homes decreased to an annual rate of 551,000; current estimates, however are for a modest rise in the next report to an annual rate of 560,000;

Wednesday, July 27th

00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the last quarterly report, the CPI slipped to -0.2%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show a bounce back to a 0.4% quarterly pace;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the shifts of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of June 2016. In the previous report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 4.9%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to reach 5% rate;

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q2 2016: This report will refer to the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the second quarter; current projections are for a 0.5% gain;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to June and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of May  2016, core durable goods declined by 0.3%, month over month; in the next report, core durable goods are expected to rise by 0.3%;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during June; in the previous update for May, pending home sales index fell by 3.7% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by 1.9%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 22nd;

19:00 –FOMC Meeting: This FOMC meeting won’t include a press conference nor an update about the economic outlook. This will be the first meeting since the Brexit vote. And now the market will see if the Fed tries to keep the markets calm by not hinting of a rate hike in the coming months – for July the market doesn’t expect a hike; or the Fed may decide to go with the U.S. economic data, which were mostly favorable in the past month, and hint of a possible raise in the near term;

Thursday, July 28th

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 22nd; in the recent report, jobless claims edged down to 253K; in the next report, estimates are for 261K claims;

16:00 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 22nd;

Friday, July 29th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In this Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will decided if it’s time to introduce more monetary stimulus. The BOJ will also release a revised economic outlook;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for June, the annual CPI inched up to 0.1%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%; in the next report, the market estimates the CPI were to remain 0.1% and core CPI  to also remain unchanged at 0.9%;  

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for May 2016. In the previous update regarding April 2016, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.1%;

13:30 – First Estimate of U.S GDP for 2Q 2016: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s Q2 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q1 the GDP grew by 1.1%. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to rise to 2.6%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index declined to 93.5;

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