Financial Market Outlook for October 24-28

With less than three weeks until the U.S. elections, concerns over a hard Brexit and earnings season underway market volatility is likely to slowly pick up in the near term. This week the main events of the week include: U.S. GDP for Q3, U.S. core durable goods, German business climate index, GB’s GDP for Q3, U.S. consumer confidence, U.S. new home sales, ECB President Draghi speaks, U.S. pending home sales, and U.S. consumer sentiment. So let’s breakdown the main events for the week of October 24th to 28th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 24th

09:30 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the EU’s PMI rose to 52.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are expanding at a faster pace as of September. And Germany’s PMI also picked up to 54.6 – the industry is also expanding at a faster rate; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to remain unchanged at 54.3;

Tuesday, October 25th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of October; In the September report, the business climate index rose to 109.5; currently, the market expects to edge up to 109.5;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for September, consumer confidence index rose to 104.1. The current estimates are that the index change course and fall to 101.5;

15:35 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The ongoing concerns over a possible hard Brexit has already pushed the British pound lower; the markets will seek direction from Carney of a possible change from the BOE’s monetary policy moving forward;

16:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi is due to speak about stability, equity, and monetary policy at the DIW Economic Institute, in Berlin;

Wednesday, October 26th

00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the recent quarterly report, the CPI rose to 0.4%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show a further rise to a 0.5% quarterly pace;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to September; in the recent report (opens pdf file), sales of new homes slipped to an annual rate of 609,000; current estimates are for a modest fall in the upcoming report to an annual rate of 601,000;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 21st;

Thursday, October 27th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of September 2016. In the last report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 5.1%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to remain flat at 5.1% rate;

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2016: This report will refer to the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter; current projections are for a 0.3% gain;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report pertain to September and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of August  2016, core durable goods slipped by 0.4%, month over month; in the next report, core durable goods are expected to rise by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 21st; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 260K; in the next report, estimates are for a modest gain to 261K claims;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during September; in the previous update for August, pending home sales index fell by 2.4% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by 1.2%;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 21st;

Friday, October 28th

Tentative – Germany’s preliminary CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI edged up by 0.1%, M-o-M, and isn’t expected to change in the upcoming report;

13:30 – First Estimate of U.S GDP for 3Q 2016: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s Q3 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 1.2%. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to rise to 2.5%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; currently, the sentiment index is expected to drop to 88.2;

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