Financial Market Outlook for October 3-7

The recent recovery of oil prices following the possible deal by OPEC has also helped pushed up the risk currencies including the loonie and the Aussie. But this week the market’s attention will move back to the U.S. and the NFP report that will impact market estimates about a possible rate hike in December. Other news items include: U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, Australia’s retail sales, German, GB and U.S. manufacturing PMI, U.S. factory orders, Canada’s employment and RBA’s rate decision. So let’s review the main events for the week of October 3rd to 7th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 3rd

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: In the first estimate for September, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 53.3 – manufacturing is expanding; the market expects the PMI to slightly decline to 52.1;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Back in August, the PMI decreased to 49.4 — the manufacturing sector is shirking. But it’s estimated to bounce back to 50.4 in the upcoming report, which means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slow rate;

Tuesday, October 4th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: In the last meeting, RBA left, as expected, its cash rate at 1.5%; and under his first rate decision, Governor Philip Lowe isn’t expected to cut rates this time;

Wednesday, October 5th

02:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for August 2016, retail sales remained unchanged; this time the market anticipates a gain of 0.2%;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for September 2016 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Back in August, the PMI decreased to 51.4 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to rise back to 53.1 in the upcoming report, which means the manufacturing sector is expanding and a faster pace;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders increased by 1.5% during August; currently, the market expectations are for a decline of 0.4% in September;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 30th;

Thursday, October 6th

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders rose by 0.2% in August; the market estimates that this time factory orders increased by 0.3% in September;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 30th; in the recent report, jobless claims increased to 254K; in the next report, estimates are for 255K claims;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 30th;

Friday, October 7th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for August; in the recent report regarding July 2016 the index decreased by 0.9%; this time, the estimates are for a rise of 0.4%;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the latest employment update referring to August, unemployment edged up to 7%; but employment picked up by 26.2K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 151K jobs were added – lower than market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%. The next report is expected to show a higher number (current estimates are at 171K); and wages to rise at a monthly rate of 0.2%; if the report doesn’t beat market estimates, this could have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and reduce again the chances of a rate hike by December;

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