The ECB’s decision to heavily hint of more stimulus up ahead was enough to bring down the Euro. And soon after even POBC also upped its ante by reducing rates as well. Now this week the attention will move towards BOJ and FOMC. The former as to whether it plans to expand its QE program and the latter as to whether it aims to start raising rates. Other reports and events on this week’s agenda include: U.S. GDP for Q3, EU flash CPI, GB GDP for Q3, U.S. core durable goods, EU M3, U.S. consumer confidence, Canada’s GDP, U.S. PCE, and Australian retail sales and CPI. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of October 26-30.
(All times GMT):
Monday, October 26th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of October. In the September report, the business climate index rose to 108.5; currently, the market expects a modest drop to 108.1;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to September; in the latest report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 552,000; current estimates are for a slower growth with an annual rate of 546,000;
Tuesday, October 27th
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of September 2015. In the August report, the annual growth rate for M3 fell to 4.8%; M1 decreased to 11.4%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to households inched up to 0.4%; current estimates are for another modest gain in the growth rate of M3 to 5%;
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2015: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.6% gain;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report pertains to September and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of August 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods fell by 2.3%, month over month, and all manufacturing industries decreased by 1.7%; this time, however, durable goods are expected to show a contraction of 1.1%;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for September, consumer confidence index rose again to 103. The current estimates are that the index fell back 102.5;
Wednesday, October 28th
00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the previous quarterly report, the CPI reached 0.7%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show, yet again, a 0.7% quarterly gain;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 23rd;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting: This will be the seventh FOMC meeting for the year and the penultimate one before the highly expected meeting in December. For now, the Fed isn’t expected to come up with any big headlines and considering the U.S. economy hasn’t been growing as fast as it did in previous quarters, the market doesn’t expect the FOMC to make any changes to its policy or even provide any major hints in the statement; it’s likely to be a similar statement to the last one with little to no changes;
Thursday, October 29th
13:30 – Third U.S GDP 3Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 3.9% — higher than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to fall to 1.6%. A better than expected growth rate could push up equities and commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 23rd; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 259K; the expectations are for this number to rise to 264K;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S during September; in the previous update for August, pending home sales index fell by 1.4% (month-over-month). Currently, the market expects home sales to increase by 1.1% in the last month;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 23rd;
Friday, October 30th
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to expand the bank’s asset purchase program or at the very least drop some hints about it in the coming meetings; even though there is pressure on the BOJ to expand QE, for now the market expects the bank not to announce of any big changes to policy; the BOJ will also provide an updated outlook for Japan’s economy;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for September 2015, retail sales decreased by 0.4%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the latest estimate for September, the annual CPI was inched down to -0.1%. The core CPI also slipped to 0.9%. The current estimates are that the inflation rises back to 0%, and the core CPI to remain at 0.9%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for August 2015. In the previous update regarding July 2015, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.3%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to analyze the shifts in U.S. inflation. In the previous report, the PCE index increase by 0.4% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up again by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up by 0.2% and PCE by 0.2%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index declined again to 87.2;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still contracting. Current estimates are for no change;
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