Crude oil prices finished the week with moderate rises but they are currently traded moderately down. Today, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will give a speech.
Here’s a short analysis and outlook of the crude oil market for today, July 25th:
Crude oil prices – July 2011
On Friday, July 22nd crude oil price (WTI) rose by 0.78% to $99.64/b; during July WTI spot oil inclined by 4.55%.
Brent oil price also rose 0.54% to $118.29/b; during July Brent oil rose by 5.89%.
The chart below shows WTI spot oil and Brent oil price during July (June30th =100). It shows the upward trend of crude oil prices mainly during the first week of July; afterwards, Brent oil nearly didn’t change, while WTI spot oil started to rise in recent days.
Premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil
The premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil kept on falling in recent days as Brent oil crawled down while WTI spot oil price inclined; on Friday July 22nd the premium reached $18.65/b – its lowest level since July 6th; that being said, during July this premium rose by 13.65%, mainly because Brent oil price outperformed WTI spot oil price during the first week of July.
US dollar / Crude oil prices – July update
On Friday, Euro to US dollar exchange rate declined by 0.45%; furthermore, the Australian dollar to US dollar rose by 0.09% and US dollar to Canadian dollar moderately inclined by 0.50%. This direction might shift as the concerns over the US debt ceiling continue to build up (see here for further elaboration on the debt ceiling talks).
Current crude oil prices
Major crude oil prices are currently traded down in the European markets:
The Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (August 2011 delivery) is traded at $99.1 / barrel, a $0.77/b decrease or 0.77%, as of 09:33*.
The Dated Brent spot oil price declines by $0.39/b to $117.90/ barrel as of 09:45*.
(* GMT)
Thus, the current premium of Brent over WTI is at $18.80/b.
Crude oil price outlook and analysis:
Crude oil prices continue to moderately change with no clear direction for crude oil prices and in the short term, they are likely to remain near $97-$100 for WTI spot oil and $117-$118 for Brent oil.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
Today
4.05 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Governor Stevens talks
Tomorrow
15.00 – US consumer confidence
15:00 – U.S. new home sales
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Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.