The U.S. dollar came further down in the past week following the release of the recent FOMC statement. This week, the UK elections will take center stage in Europe and in the U.S. the main report is the NF payroll. After last month’s disappointing report, a rise of well over 200K in jobs could bring back up the USD. Other U.S. reports/events include: Yellen’s speech, trade balance, factory orders, and non-manufacturing PMI. In Europe, the main economic reports include: EU retail sales, German manufacturing PMI, and Spanish unemployment. In China, manufacturing PMI final estimate will come out. Finally, In Australia, we have RBA’s rate decision, trade balance, RBA’s quarterly policy statement, and employment report. So let’s examine the agenda for May 4th to May 8th:
(All times GMT):
Monday, May 4th
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s last estimate): This is HSBC’s final estimate for its April’s PMI index estimate. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. Current estimates are at 49.4 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are still contracting;
08:55 – German final Manufacturing PMI: In March, Germany’s manufacturing index rose again to 52.8 – market expectations are that in April the PMI declined to 51.9;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the shifts in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in April; in the latest report regarding March factory orders inched up by 0.2%; current projections are for a reported gain of 2.1% in April;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the recent report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services expanded again to 1.26 billion dollars; the report will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
Tuesday, May 5th
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. Current estimates are for a modest 0.25% rate cut that will bring the cash rate to 2%;
08:00 – Spanish Unemployment: Last month, the number of people unemployed fell by 60.2K; this time the estimates put this figure at 64.8K drop;
10:00 – EU Economic Forecasts: EU states will release an economic forecast for the EU for the next two years;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance contracted to $1 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for March will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the last American trade balance update regarding February the goods and services deficit contracted to $35.4 billion; current projections are for the deficit to expand to $39.2 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to April 2015. In the last update for March, this index edged down to 56.5 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace compared to the previous month; current estimates are for the PMI to slip again to 56.2;
Wednesday, May 6th
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.7%;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to March 2015. In the last update, the volume of retail trade declined by 0.2%;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for April 2015 that will be released on Friday;
14:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following last week’s FOMC meeting, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a panel discussion about finance, governance, and society at the Institute for Economic Thinking conference on Finance and Society, in Washington DC;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 1st;
Thursday, May 7th
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding March 2015 the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 37.7K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders fell by 0.9% during March;
All Day – UK Elections: Voters will elect 650 members of UK’s Lower House of Parliament; the current polls show that neither of the big parties have enough votes to form a government;
13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1st; in the latest report, the jobless claims declined to 262K;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of May 1st;
Friday, May 8th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted in the past month, but is expected to expand in the upcoming monthly update; this report provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the previous employment update for March 2015, unemployment remained flat at 6.8%; the employment grew by 28.7K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report referring to March 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by only 126K – well below market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%. If the upcoming report shows a strong gain (current projections are at 231K), this could strengthen the USD and bring down precious metals;
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