The U.S. dollar took another hit last week mainly against the Yen, Aussie dollar and British Pound. The depreciation of the USD provided some back-wind for commodities including oil and gold. This week, the main events include: ECB rate decision (with press conference), China’s GDP, the minutes of recent RBA’s meeting, GB and Canada’s retail sales, BOC rate decision, GB net borrowing, U.S. housing starts, EU manufacturing PMI, U.S. existing home sales, and Canada’s CPI. So let’s breakdown what’s ahead for the week of October 19th to 23rd:
(All times GMT):
Monday, October 19th
03:00 –China Third Quarter GDP 2015: In the second quarter, China’s economy grew by 7% in annual terms – not far off market expectations. Although most economic updates should be taken with a pinch of salt; the current expectations are for the growth rate to modestly decline to an annual rate of 6.8% for Q3 2015. If the growth rate declines even further, this may suggest the concerns of China’s economic slowdown have some validity;
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the previous monthly update, China industrial production inched up to an annual rate of 6.1% — lower than market projections; the growth rate is estimated to slightly decline — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6.0%;
Tuesday, October 20th
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate, which is set at 2% as of the October meeting; this report is still likely to move the Aussie dollar and perhaps indicate what’s next vis-à-vis RBA’s policy;
11:00 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to testify on the Bank of England Bill before the Treasury Select Committee, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S. housing starts monthly update for September 2015; in the recent report, housing starts fell to 1,130 houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during August, building permits rose to 1,170K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest fall to 1,160K;
Wednesday, October 21st
09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on recent month’s update, public net borrowing reached a surplus of 11.3 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a shift to a smaller surplus of 9.1 billion pounds;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will release its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any changes in this press conference; it could impact the Canadian dollar;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: Back in September Bank of Canada cut left its overnight rate at 0.50%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy, but the ongoing low commodities prices, mainly in oil and natural gas, are likely to pressure BOC to reduce again its cash rate;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 16th;
Thursday, October 22nd
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.2%;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The press conference of ECB’s President Draghi is likely to be the main event of the week to move markets. The main question will be if the ECB plans to hint or even actually move forward in giving an update on its QE program: Will the program be expanded? Extended? Will the ECB refer to the recent developments in China, U.S.?
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding August 2015, manufacturing sales remained unchanged;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 16th; in the recent report, jobless claims dropped to 255K; the expectations are for this number to rise to 266K;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for September 2015; in the August report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to rise to 5.38 million houses;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 16th;
Friday, October 23rd
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous September update, France’s PMI rose to 50.4 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing. Germany’s PMI slipped to 52.5 – the industry is expanding at a slower pace;
13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the previous report, the CPI remained edged up by 0.2%, M-o-M;
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