Another disappointing non-farm payroll, in which only 142K jobs were added in September. Moreover, there were downward revisions for the two previous months for a total of 59K jobs. This puts into question whether the Fed were to raise rates this year. Besides the echoes of the NFP that will keep resonating in the markets, on this week’s agenda we also have: Minutes of FOMC, BOE, RBA and BOJ monetary policy meetings, Canada’s employment report, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, U.S. trade balance, and EU economic summit. So let’s breakdown the main events of the week of October 5th to 9th:
(All times GMT):
Monday, October 5th
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: In the August report, the PMI declined to 59 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing albeit at a slower pace; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 58;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.46 billion Australian dollars; the monthly report will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi is expected to give a speech in Frankfurt;
Tuesday, October 6th
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA didn’t change its cash rate – which is set at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and reduce rates or at the very least change the tone of the statement to account for the uncertainty around China’s progress and low metal and energy prices;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders fell by 2% during August; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.5% in September;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous update, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $0.6 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for August will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for July, the goods and services deficit shark to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to grow to $42.2 billion;
Wednesday, October 7th
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to expand the bank’s asset purchase program or at the very least drop some hints about it in the coming meetings – especially given the lack of growth in Japan’s economy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for August; in the last report regarding July 2015 the index declined by 0.8%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.5% gain;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 2nd;
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the recent monthly report, the surplus in the current account grew to 1.32 trillion yen;
Thursday, October 8th
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: The BOE will also release the policy summary and offer some insight behind the recent decision; last time one member voted against keeping rates low;
12:30 –ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 2nd; in the recent report, jobless claims increased to 277K; the expectations are for this number to slightly decreased to 274K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 2nd;
19:00 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to participate in a panel discussion about the global economy at the International Monetary Fund meeting, in Lima;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: Sometimes the minutes are revised to account for the recent economic developments. This time, we may see some reference to the latest NFP report and its impact on the Fed’s decision to keep rates low. Even without revisions, this report is likely to move the market considering the NFP report wasn’t strong, China’s economic turbulence and the uncertainty around the timing of raising rates;
Friday, October 9th
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding August, unemployment rose to 7%; the employment, by 12K;
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