The Greek debt crisis seems to have reached, for now, a solution. The Greeks basically gave in to the Germans in regards to the whole austerity. The Greeks will need to submit on Monday proposal for reforms, which will need to be approved by the EU partners. Looking forward, this week we will have other reports and events that could stir up the markets: In the U.S. Yellen will testify in Congress, the second estimate of GDP for Q4 will be released, existing, pending and new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence and UoM consumer sentiment. In Europe: Monetary developments, final CPI estimate, German business climate, GB GDP for Q4, and German unemployment. So let’s examine the main events and reports for the week of February 23rd to February 27th:
(All times GMT):
Sunday, February 22nd
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could provide some insight behind its recent meeting;
Monday, February 23rd
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of February. In the January report, the business climate index increased again to 106.7 – the current expectations are that the index will rise again to 107.4;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for January 2015; in the latest report regarding December, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million houses; the current expectations are for the annul rate to remain relatively flat at 5.03 million houses;
Tuesday, February 24th
10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of -0.6% as of January. This number means the EU is in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy; current estimates the rate will remain unchanged at -0.6%;
14:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the official unveiling of the 20 euro banknote organized by the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the recent update for January, the consumer confidence index rallied again to 102.9; this suggests consumer spending is growing faster. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will slip to 99.6;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Following the latest release of the minutes of the first FOMC meeting for the year, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. If she were to refer to the FOMC’s future plans regarding its monetary policy, this testimony could impact the U.S. dollar and precious metals prices;
19:00 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to hold a press conference at Western University, in London;
Wednesday, February 25th
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for February. Last month’s report regarding January 2015, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting at a slower pace. The current expectations are for this index to slip back to 49.6. If the PMI index falls, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector is shirking;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will also testify before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to January 2015; in the recent report (opens pdf; for December), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 481,000 – a 9.8% gain (month-over-month); current estimates are for a edge down to an annual rate of 477,000;
16:30 – ECB President Draghi Testifies: ECB President will testify on the ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Brussels;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 20th;
Thursday, February 26th
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report shows the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2014. As of the recent quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure inched up by 0.2% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for a -1.3% drop in the past quarter;
09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 9.3. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is improving;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the unemployment fell by 9K;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of January 2015. In the last December report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 3.6%; M1 also grew to 7.8%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.1%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise to 3.8%;
09:30 – Second Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q4 2014: This report will present the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2014; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.5%; if this report shows a different growth rate, this could move the British pound;
10:15 – Targeted LTRO: The ECB lends money to banks via this auction; this will be the third tranche. In the first one 82.6 billion Euros were auctioned; in the second one, 129.8 billion Euros; in both cases, they were below market expectations. If this auction also falls short, this could suggest the QE program will ramp up.
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 20th; in the previous report the jobless claims slipped to 283K;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for December; in the last report, the core CPI fell by 0.3%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for January 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during December, the CPI declined by 0.4% the core CPI remained flat; this report could impact the USD and change the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding January will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of December 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods slipped to $230.6 billion – a 3.3% drop compared to November; current estimates are at 0.6% gain for this upcoming report;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 20th;
Friday, February 27th
Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the previous CPI report for January 2015, the CPI fell by 1%. This time the expectations are for the CPI to rise by 0.6%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to drop to 89.1;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 4Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 2.6%; this was lower than expected. The current estimates are that the GDP grew by 2.1% in the past quarter – a downward revision. If the US gross domestic product shows lower growth rate, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report presents the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S during January; in the previous update for December, pending home sales index fell by 3.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the changes of the U.S housing market;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the past update, the sentiment index rose to 98.1;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. If the updated PMI index falls again, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing further down;
For further reading: