According to the recent U.S. consumer confidence survey, the consumer confidence index slipped in October compared with September’s index. The index reached in October to 39.8 (1985=100) a drop from 46.4 in September. American consumers’ short term outlook in U.S. business conditions has also changed direction and decreased according to the report. Furthermore, the consumers’ assessment of current day conditions also didn’t improve in October.
Please note that this report was based on a survey conducted up to October 13th. During that time, the market conditions slipped in terms of stock markets, and major commodities.
This consumer confidence index might curb the recent rally in natural gas prices: according to a paper prepared by Roache et. al (2008) on the effects of news on commodities prices including natural gas prices, there was a positive significant coefficient for “consumer confidence” on natural gas prices i.e. this news has a positive linear affect on natural gas prices. Furthermore, the paper also suggested positive significant coefficient between this news and crude oil prices.
Currently major commodities are traded up:
Current Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (November 2011 delivery) is traded up by 2.32% to $93.39 per barrel as of 15:02*.
Current gold price, short term futures (November 2011 delivery) is traded at $1,655.3 per t oz. a $3 increase as of 14:54*.
Euros to US dollar exchange rate is currently traded down at 1.3880 a 0.3489% decrease as of 15:04*.
(* GMT)
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