Financial Market Preview for June 1-5

The U.S. dollar changed course and rallied against the Japanese yen, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar and remained nearly flat against the Euro. The GDP for Q1, second estimate, was released on Friday and showed a contraction of 0.7% — slightly better than expected but still well below the first estimate. Gold and silver took another beating last week, while crude oil rallied. This week, the ECB rate decision and NFP report for May will be the main events of the week. Other reports and events include: BOE and RBA rate decisions, EU CPI flash estimate, Australia Canada and U.S. trade balance reports, U.S. and Germany factory orders, U.S. manufacturing PMI, China manufacturing PMI final estimate, EU retail sales, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, OPEC Summit, and Canada’s employment update. So let’s review the agenda for June 1st to June 5th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 1st

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s last estimate): This is HSBC’s final estimate for its May’s PMI index estimate. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.9 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a faster pace. Current estimates are at 49.2 — China’s manufacturing conditions are still contracting, only slower;

08:55 – German final Manufacturing PMI: In March, Germany’s manufacturing index slipped to 52.1 – market expectations are that in May the PMI declined to 51.4;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in April, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 51.9 – market expectations are that in May the PMI edged up to 52.7;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to review the progress of U.S. inflation. In the previous report, the PCE index rose by 0.4% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE and PCE increased by 0.2% in the next report;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to May 2015. Back in April, the index remained unchanged at 51.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at the same pace as in March; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to slightly increase to 51.9;

Tuesday, June 2nd

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA reduced its cash rate to 2%. Current estimates are that the RBA will keep its rate unchanged at 2%;

08:00 – Spanish Unemployment: Last month, the number of people unemployed dropped by 118.9K; this time the estimates put this figure at 115.5K decline;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the previous estimate for April, the annual CPI was 0%. The core CPI remained unchanged at 0.6%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are that the inflation reached 0.1% last month, and the core CPI inched up to 0.7%;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in May; in the latest report regarding April factory orders rose by 2.1%; current projections are for a reported no growth  in May;

Wednesday, June 3rd

00:30 – Australian GDP First Quarter of 2015: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the GDP grew by 0.5% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.6% gain in the first quarter (see here last update);

10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will pertain to April 2015. In the last update, the volume of retail trade declined by 0.8%;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report presented that the rate of unemployment didn’t move from 11.3%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area hasn’t improved;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: Even though ECB isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy, the markets will closely follow this event as the markets will view whether Draghi backs down from its current QE program. Currently, it seems that ECB will move ahead with its QE program without any impediments or slowdowns in purchases;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for May 2015 that will be published on Friday;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance expanded to $3 billion;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for April will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding March the goods and services deficit expanded to $51.4 billion; current projections are for the deficit to contract to $44.2 billion;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to May 2015. In the last update for April, this index rose to 57.8 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace compared to the previous month; current estimates are for the PMI to slip to 57.2;

15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 29th;

Thursday, June 4th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3%;

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the last update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services grew again to 1.32 billion dollars; the report will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: This event isn’t likely to stir the markets considering Bank of England isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy at this point in time;

13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 29th; in the recent report, the jobless claims slightly rose to 282K;

15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of May 29th;

Friday, June 5th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders bounced back and rose by 0.9% during April;

All Day – OPEC Summit: This will be the first of two summits planned for the year – the second summit will be in December. Currently, the market expects OPEC members to keep the quota unchanged at 30 million bbl/day;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for April 2015, unemployment didn’t change at 6.8%; the employment contracted by 19.7K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the recent employment report referring to April 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 223K – inline market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate edged down to 5.4%. If the upcoming report presents a weaker than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 226K), this could weaken the USD and drive up precious metals prices;

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