Gold and silver prices ended the first week of December with moderate change; the U.S. employment report, which was published on Friday, seems to have had a modest effect on the precious metals prices. Today, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report will be published and Australia’s’ Cash Rate decision will be announced. Currently, gold and silver are traded with moderate changes.
Here is a market outlook of precious metals prices for today, December 5th:
Gold and Silver Prices –Update
Gold price slightly rose on Friday by 0.66% to $1,751.3; silver price on the other hand moderately declined by 0.22% to $32.69. The chart herein presents the changes of gold and silver prices in the past couple of weeks (normalized gold and silver prices to November 17th 2011). During last week gold price slightly inclined by 2.1% and silver price by 1.4%.
The ratio between gold and silver prices slightly rose on Friday, December 2nd to 53.58.
Gold producers also were affected by the recent slowdown in gold price’s rally as their stocks were traded at their lowest level in nine years. Many still anticipate a rally in commodities prices including bullion prices. This outlook was further boosted by Goldman Sachs projection that commodities will rally in 2012.
U.S. Non-farm Employment Rose by 120k in November
In the recent report for November, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 120k; the U.S unemployment rate sharply fell to 8.6%. This report may have slightly affected gold and silver prices: During the past year there was a negative relation between the U.S. non-farm report and bullion prices so that as the U.S. employment grew, gold and silver prices tended to decrease that day.
The table below shows the recent announcements and the percent daily changes of gold and silver prices on those days.
Despite the negative correlations, gold price slightly rose on Friday and silver price moderately declined as indicated above.
On Today’s Agenda
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during November 2011. During October this index remained nearly unchanged at 53.9%; this index might affect commodities traders (see here last report).
Reserve Bank of Australia – Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank will probably remain unchanged at 4.75%;
Forex Trading / Gold & Silver Prices – Update
The Euro to U.S Dollar exchange rate declined on the last day of the week by 0.53% to 1.3391. Other forex currencies such as the Australian dollar also depreciated against the US dollar. The positive correlations between gold and silver prices and forex exchange rates may further play a role in the development of gold and silver prices throughout the day. The chart below shows the development of the correlations of gold and silver prices with EURO/USD. During the past couple of months silver price (daily percent changes) and Euro/USD were strongly positively correlated.
Current Gold and Silver Prices
The major precious metals are currently traded with mixed trend in the European markets:
Current gold price per ounce short term future (January 2012 delivery) is traded at $1,748.70 per t oz. a $2.6 or 0.15% decrease as of 07:34*.
Current silver price per ounce short term future (January 2012 delivery) is at $32.860 per t oz – a $0.174 or 0.53% incline as of 07:35*.
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook:
Gold and silver prices continue to seek direction and don’t show a clear path on the first few days of December. But the precious metals prices could start to rise as the week will progress and the plans of the European Union leaders in stabilizing the markets will unveil. The U.S. economic reposts such as the non-manufacturing PMI might help rally the markets if it will turn out to show an improvement.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement
12:00 – German Factory orders
14:00 – Canada Overnight Rate
2:30 – Australian GDP Third Quarter 2011
For further reading:
About the Author: Lior Cohen, M.A in Economics, a commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.
Monthly Analysis and Outlook: