Gold and silver prices didn’t do much yesterday, with gold price slightly falling and silver price increasing. Currently, gold and silver prices are traded with slight changes. Today, the Euro Area Annual Inflation report will be published, and Canada’s GDP report for July 2011.
Here is a market outlook of precious metals prices for today, September 30th:
Gold and Silver Prices –September
Gold and silver prices shifted to red and decreased yesterday: Gold price slightly declined on Thursday by 0.05% to $1,617; silver price on the other hand moderately increased by 1.29% to $30.52. During September, gold price fell by 11.7% and silver price decreased by 26.9%. The chart below shows the development of gold and silver prices during September (normalized gold and silver prices (August 31st 2011=100)).
The ratio between gold and silver prices slightly slipped on Thursday, September 29th to 52.99. During September, silver price declined by a much higher rate than gold price as the ratio increased by 20.8%.
On Today’s Agenda:
Euro Area Annual Inflation: the inflation in Euro Area remained unchanged in August with an annual inflation rate of 2.5%; if the upcoming flash estimate won’t show an increase in the inflation rate, it may affect the EURO/USD and consequently affect gold and silver prices;
Canada GDP: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for July 2011. In the previous report regarding June 2011, the real gross domestic product slightly inclined by 0.2%,. This report could affect the strength of CAD exchange rate and consequently affect gold and silver prices.
US Dollar / Gold & Silver Prices – September Update
The EURO/USD exchange rate continues to zigzag and finished yesterday slightly up by 0.41% to reach 1.3598; the AUD/USD nearly didn’t change; the USD/CAD increased by 0.24%. If the major currencies will close the day rising, they may affect gold and silver prices to trade slightly up.
U.S. Treasuries / Gold Price – September Update
The US 10-year Treasury yield shifted from the recent upward tends and declined yesterday by 0.04 percent points to 1.99%; during September it has fallen by 0.24 percent points. The recent upward trend in LT securities’ yields may have represented a shift in the direction of yields in recent months. The negative correlation between the US long term Treasury yields and gold price daily percent changes (in September the correlation was -0.221), mainly in recent days might suggest that traders are moving away from “safe haven” investments such as LT securities’ and gold. If this pattern will continue, it may keep gold price low.
S&P500 / Gold Price – September Update
The S&P500 index increased yesterday by 0.81%; during September the S&P500 index declined by 4.80%. The weak negative correlation between the S&P500 index and gold price (as of September it was -0.155) suggest that the US stock markets’ performance isn’t strongly related to the movement in gold price during September. But there is still a chance that if the US stock markets will rise, they might moderately drag gold price down, or at least keep it low.
Current Gold and Silver Prices
The precious metals prices are currently traded slightly down in the U.S. markets:
Current gold price short term future (October 2011 delivery) is traded at $1,616.6 per t oz. a $0.7 or 0.04% decrease as of 14:38*.
Current silver price short term future is at $30.265 per t oz – a $0.257 or 0.84% decline as of 14:38*.
The current ratio of gold to silver prices is at 53.39.
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook:
Gold and silver prices didn’t do much yesterday, but in the past few days they have both shed an ample amount off their value. Some may have attributed to the FOMC decision from last week, other also consider last week’s CME margin hike on gold and silver contracts. In any case, these events and perhaps other along the way (e.g. the deliberations of European policymakers over debt bailout program the recent reports on Euro and US economies that show a slowdown in economic activity during last month) all have contributed to change the direction of gold and salver prices during the second half of September. For the last day of the month, probably there won’t be many changes, and I speculate there will be a slight increase in gold and silver prices to close the month of September and the week.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):
10.00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (September)
13:30 – Canada GDP by Industry
For further reading:
- Gold and silver prices outlook for September 2011
- Weekly Outlook for September 26-30
- Gold & Silver Prices | Weekly Recap 19-23 September
Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.