Precious metals prices started off the week with slight changes as gold price moderately declined and silver slightly rose. Following the approval of the austerity plan by the Greek parliament, the riots in Greece continue and raise the question whether Greece will be able to implement its own austerity plan. If there will be other developments from this region it might affect the Euro. Moody’s will cut the credit ratings of six EU countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal. It might cut in the future the rating of France, UK and Austria.
Currently gold and silver prices are decreasing. Today, the following financial reports will come out: Great Britain CPI, U.S. Retail Sales and German ZEW economic sentiment.
Here is a report of major news and events, and an analysis of metals prices for Tuesday, February 14th:
Gold and Silver– February Update
Gold price nearly didn’t move yesterday as it slightly declined by 0.02% to $1,724.9; silver on the other hand slightly increased by 0.35% to $33.72. During February, gold declined by 0.89% while silver rose by 1.38%.
The chart below presenters the development of gold and silver during February (prices are normalized to January 31st).
The ratio between gold and silver moderately declined on Monday, February 13th at 51.15. During February the ratio declined by 2.24% as silver slightly outperformed gold. In the chart below is the development of this ratio during the month.
U.S. Retail Sales: this report will present the changes in the retail sales and food services during January; in the recent report, the retail sales slightly increased by 0.1%; this report could signal the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand (see here my review of the recent report).
German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for February. For January 2012 the ZEW indicator for Germany increased to -21.6 (see here the recent report);
Great Britain Consumer Price Index: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index for January; some expect the January inflation will be lower than in recent months; this news may affect British pound trading;
Forex / Gold & Silver Market – February
The Euro/U.S Dollar also nearly didn’t shift during yesterday’s trading. It ended up declining by 0.08% to 1.3186. During February Euro/U.S Dollar rose by 0.79%; on the other hand during yesterday’s trading, other currencies such as Canadian dollar and Australian dollar slightly appreciated against the U.S. dollar. During recent weeks there were strong linear correlations among the EURO and Australian dollar and precious metals. If the Euro and Australian dollar will trade down today, it could indicate that metals will follow and also fall. Currently, the Euro/USD is declining.
Current Gold and Silver Prices February 14th
Gold (March 2012 delivery) is traded at $1,717.5 per t oz. a $7.4 or 0.43% decrease as of 07:25*.
Silver (March 2012 delivery) is at $33.520 per t oz – a $0.202 or 0.60% decrease as of 07:25*.
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook and Analysis
Gold and silver prices continue to shift from gains to losses with no clear path as they have been doing during most of February. The ongoing development from Greece and recent announcement of Moody’s might adversely affect the Euro and thus may also trade down gold and silver prices during the day. The financial reports to be published today regarding U.S. and Germany (listed above) might also affect the forex and commodities markets.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
09:30 – Great Britain CPI
10:00 –German ZEW economic sentiment
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report
10:00– Euro Area GDP 4Q2011 Report
10:30 –Bank of England’s Governor King speaks
15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report
19:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
For further reading: