According to the latest February update published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries referring to the recent shifts in the crude oil market for January, the OPEC oil production edged down again during January compared with December’s oil production.
OPEC’s crude oil production slipped to 30,320 thousand bbl/d in January compared with 30,341 thousand bbl/d in December. This means the total OPEC oil supply inched down by 21.2 thousand during last month. Saudi Arabia’s oil production declined by 420 thousand bbl/d to 9,211 thousand bbl/d. Iraq’s oil production also slightly declined by 75.8 thousand bbl/d to reach 3,011 thousand bbl/d. The current production of Libya is still nearly 5% below its average oil production of 1,600 thousand bbl/d back in 2010. Nigeria’s oil production slightly decreased to 2,017 thousand bbl/d. Iran’s oil production remained stable at 2,691 thousand, which is still its lowest production level in latest years.
The rest of OPEC countries remained virtually unchanged their oil quotas during January 2013.
The oil supply of non-OPEC countries was revised upwards to an estimate of 53.92 million bbl/d in 2013, a rise of 0.94 million bbl/d compared with 2012’s oil supply.
Assuming that OPEC’s supply will remain unchanged in 2013 at the same level as in 2012 at 31.15 million bbl/d and adding to that OPEC’s NGL’s and non-conventional oil at an estimate of 5.75 the total global supply will reach in 2013 an estimate of 90.82 million bbl/d.
The total world oil demand forecast for 2013 is estimated to be 89.68 million bbl/d – a growth of 0.84 million bbl/d or less than 1% compared with 2012’s demand.
The estimated gap between supply and demand on a global will reach during 2013 a total of 1.14 million bbl/d (i.e. a surplus of 1,140 thousand barrels). Therefore, if the difference between the supply and the demand with further contract it could suggest that the oil market with further tighten in the months to come, which keep oil prices from falling back to the 80s range.
IEA Oil Monthly Update
The non-OPEC countries’ oil production fell by 0.2 mb/d during January 2013..
The global oil demand projection is expected to rise by 0.84 mbbl/d reach to 90.7 mbbl/d in 2013 compared with 2012’s demand. This estimate is higher than the projected oil demand in OPEC’s report.
In the report, the OECD industry oil inventories decreased by 22 million bbl to 2,688 million bbl in December 2012. The oil stockpiles are slightly below the average recorded during the month; this means that the oil market is keep tightening in OECD countries; this was probably among the reasons for the sharp rise in premium of Brent oil over WTI in recent weeks.
Finally, global refinery crude has declined to 75.1 million barrels in the first quarter of 2013.
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