Philly Fed Index Tumbled Down to 5.8 in January

Today, the first survey of 2013 for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for January was published. This survey estimates the U.S. manufacturing conditions. According to the latest update the conditions have deteriorated. Moreover, the index turned negative; the Philly Fed index declined from +4.6 in December to -5.8 in January. This is a 10.4 point drop. Employment has also deteriorated during the month. Indexes of prices decreased during the month; this might imply the price pressures have eased. The American stock markets are currently traded moderately up. Gold and silver prices are trading also moderately up.   

If this indicator provides a good estimate for the economic developments of the U.S, it may suggest a negative shift in the manufacturing sectors. This index may also suggest the economic conditions have deteriorated during January 2013 compared with the manufacturing conditions during December 2012. Moreover, the survey estimated the general employment conditions have also worsened during recent weeks.

This report shows the U.S economy isn’t progressing. Moreover, this survey could be reviewed as a preview for the growth rate of the U.S GDP in the first quarter. Since the manufacturing has deteriorated, this could suggest that the U.S GDP growth rate in the first quarter might decline compared to the fourth quarter.

This report might adversely affect not only American stock markets, but also the rates of major commodities such as crude oil.

Following the publication of this report major American stock market indexes including the Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ are currently slightly rising; major energy commodities prices such as crude oil are increasing; precious metals are currently trading down.

Current gold price (short term delivery) is traded at $1,686.6 per t oz. a $3.5 increase as of 16:17*.

Current oil price (short term delivery) is traded at $95.26 / bl a $1.02 increase as of 16:17*.

(* GMT)


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