Following the recent developments in the Greece in which it was decided there will be elections on June 17th the Euro took a dive and was traded down most of the week against the USD. The recent publications from the U.S including the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting and the Philly Fed Index may have been among the factors to drag down energy prices while pulling up gold and silver prices. This upcoming week there are several speeches, publications and events that may affect the financial markets including: U.S core durable goods, the minutes of the recent MPC meeting, GDP of GB for Q1 2012, U.S new and existing home sales, a speech by ECB President Draghi, China’s flash manufacturing PMI, German business climate and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for May 21st to May 25th referring to the U.S., EU, China, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):
Monday, May 21st
10:15 – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Following the recent FOMC meeting, the FOMC member Lockhart will give a speech. If he will hint offer some insight about the future steps of the FOMC it might affect the financial markets;
Tuesday, May 22nd
09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will refer to the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index for April 2012; some expect the April inflation will be slightly higher than in previous month; in the recent report regarding March the annual CPI edged up from 3.4% to 3.5%; this news may affect the direction of the British pound;
09:30 – Great Britain Net borrowing: this update will present the monthly developments in the public sector net borrowing for April 2012; as of March 2012, the net borrowing declined to £15.9 billion;
11:15 – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: The FOMC member Lockhart will give another speech this week;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during April 2012; in the previous report regarding March 2012 the number of homes sold decreased: the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million home sales – a 2.3% decline; if this trend will continue it may curb the recent rally in the U.S dollar;
00:50 – Japanese Trade balance: The Japanese trade balance deficit for March 2012 rose by 93.3% compared with February 2012, to reach 621.3 billion YEN (roughly $7.76 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This increase is mainly due to the rise in imports by 6.3%, and the low growth in exports by 1.2%. Japan is among the leading importing countries of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could provide some insight into Japan’s developments in demand goods and services;
Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decision and its monetary policy. Up to now, BOJ left the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce additional monetary stimulus plans, it might affect the Yen and commodities prices;
Wednesday, May 23rd
09:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes: Following the recent MPC meeting, in which it was announced the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program, will remain at £325 billion, despite the concerns the MPC may have about the rising inflation. The minutes of the recent meeting might offer some perspective behind this decision and perhaps hint of the future steps of the MPC;
13:30 –Retails Sales Canada (March 2012): This report examines the changes in the retails sales in Canada during March 2012. It may affect the path of USD/CAD exchange rate, which is strongly linked with commodities prices. In the previous report regarding February 2012, retails sales edged down by 0.2%;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the developments in new home sales April 2012; in the previous monthly update (for March 2012), the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 328,000 – a 7.1% decrease (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to decline, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the US dollar.
3:30– China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI report for March 2012 the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.1; this index indicates the changes in China’s manufacturing sectors growth rate; if this negative growth will continue, this may also adversely affect commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 18th; in the previous weekly update for May 11th, stockpiles rose by 2.8 million bl to 1,769.922 million bl;
Thursday, May 24th
09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey projects the changes (on a monthly basis) of the business climate of Germany. In the previous report for April 2012, the business climate index edged up from 109.8 in March to 109.9 in April; if this upward trend will continue, it might positively affect the Euro;
09:30 – GB revised GDP Q1 2012: This report will show the revised quarterly growth rate of the British economy during the first quarter of 2012; according to the preliminary estimate the first quarter contracted by 0.2%(Q-2-Q);
13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this update will pertain to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 19th; in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the path of the U.S dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report will analyze the developments in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector during April 2012. This report may indirectly show the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities including crude oil. According to March 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods decreased by $8.4 billion to $203 billion; if this report will continue to be negative then it could weaken the US dollar and also affect the path of gold oil and silver prices;
14:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: The President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will talk at Bank of Italy in Rome. Given the recent political changes in Greece and the fragile state in which several EU countries are at, if Draghi will refer to the ECB stands on the current situation this could affect the financial markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of May 18th; in the previous report, natural gas storage rose by 61 Bcf to 2,667 Bcf; if the natural gas storage will keep increasing at a slower than normal pace, it may keep the recent rally of U.S natural gas prices in the days to follow;
Friday May 25th
07:00 – German Consumer Climate: Gfk group will release their German consumer climate index. If this report will be positive it might also have a positive effect on the Euro;
14:55 – U.S Consumer Sentiment by UoM: University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment index.
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