In the recent Energy Information Administration petroleum report there is an outlook for the near future of the oil market with an analysis of the main factors that could affect the changes in crude oil prices in the rest of 2011 and 2012.
Here is a weekly review for the week ends on November 4th of the U.S. oil and petroleum market:
Crude oil Stockpiles
U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles changed direction and sharply fell last week by 15.3 million barrels, or by 0.87%. For the week ending on November 4th petroleum and crude oil stockpiles reached 1,745.3 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are well below the quota recoded in 2010: the current crude oil stockpiles are 96,705 million barrels below oil stockpiles levels recorded during the same week in 2010.
U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil declined by 1.3 million barrels and reached 1,034.041 million barrels; U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil reached 338.090 million bbl – a weekly decrease of 1.37 million bbl.
U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline also declined by 1.02% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 204.167 million barrels.
The chart below presents the petroleum and oil stockpiles levels compared to the WTI crude oil price in 2010 and 2011. In recent weeks, petroleum and oil stockpiles continued the downward trend, while WTI crude oil spot price bounced back. During 2011, the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.116.
Petroleum production and imports (for the week of November 4th)
U.S. oil production, oil refinery inputs and oil imports decreased last week.
The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of November 4th reached 5.858, which is lower by 0.1% compared with the previous week’s; but it is 5.2% above the average production at the same week in 2010;
Crude oil imports declined last week by 1.3% to 8.717 (for 4 week average) compared to the week of 28/10/2011; they were 0.4% above the average during the same time last year.
The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) reached 14.524 (million b/d), a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week of 28/10/2011, but were 3.6% above the same time last year.
Below is a detailed recap of the information listed above (for the week of November 4th):
Crude oil price, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on November 4th
The average U.S. gasoline retail price declined last week by three cents per gallon compared with the previous week’s average; it reached $3.42 /g, which is $0.56 /g higher than the same week in 2010.
The national average Diesel prices on the other hand remained nearly unchanged at $3.89/g. which is $0.77/g higher than last year’s average price at same time.
Propane Prices and Stocks
Propane stocks nearly didn’t change as it reached 60.192 million barrels which is a 71 thousand barrels decrease – a 0.12% decline. The average residential propane price slightly rose by less than 1 cent to $2.82 per gallon, which is $0.32 above the rate during the same week in 2010.
For further reading:
Previous posts on this subject:
- U.S. Oil Stockpiles Inclined by 1.8 Million Bbl – November 3
- U.S. Oil Stockpiles Slightly Rose by 0.7 Million Bbl – October 26