Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for July 2-6

Following the decision in the EU Summit that took many by surprise the commodities prices including gold, silver and oil changed direction from Thursday and hiked on the last day of the month. The Euro also bounced back and dragged along with it many other foreign exchange rates such as the Aussie dollar and GBP.  Will this rally continue during the upcoming week or is it something that will dissipate soon after. The upcoming week will be short one due to the U.S Fourth of July celebration.  There are several important publications and events that may affect the financial markets next week including: U.S non-farm payroll report, EU rate decision, GB interest rates decision, Canada’s employment report, U.S’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI,  Great Britain manufacturing PMI, Australia’s trade balance and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for July 2ndh to July 6th regarding the U.S., EU, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 2nd

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to Great Britain’s manufacturing sector status in June 2012. In the previous report regarding May 2012 the index tumbled down to 45.9%. This rate means the manufacturing sector is contracting; this index might affect GB Pound;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly developments in the manufacturing sector on a national level during June 2012. During May 2012 the index declined to 53.5%, which means the manufacturing is growing at a slower rate; this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets;

Tuesday, July 3rd

4:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank declined by 0.25 percent points to 3.5% – the lowest level since the end of 2009. This was the second rate change this year; if the RBA will decide to lower the rate again this news may affect the Aussie dollar that is strongly linked with commodities prices;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will show the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during May; this report will offer some insight to the growth of the U.S economy and could affect the direction of the U.S dollar;

Wednesday, July 4th

2:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will pertain to May 2012. In the previous report, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted from a deficit of $1,283 million in March 2012 to a $203 million deficit in April 2012. The export of non-monetary gold fell by $24 million (2%); if the gold exports will continue to fall May, it might suggest a decline in demand for non-monetary gold (see here last report);

Thursday, July 5th

Tentative – Spanish 10 Year Bond Auction: the Spanish government will issue another bond auction; following the recent EU Summit this auction sales is likely to go well; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the beginning of June, the rate reached 6.04%;

12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for July 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of June the BOE’s rate remained unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £325 billion continues;

12:45 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: In previous interest rate decision the President of ECB, Mario Draghi kept the EU interest rate flat at 1%; the recent EU Summit decision to bailout struggling banks by the rescue fund might affect ECB’s rate decision; the ongoing decline in inflation rate and low growth in EU is likely to keep the option of another rate cut on the table; if ECB change the rate, it may affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the upcoming U.S non-farm payroll change during June 2012 in anticipation for the upcoming no-farm report to be published by Friday;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will refer to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 30th; in the latest report the jobless claims edged down by 6k to 386,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the developments in the non-manufacturing sector during June 2012. During May 2012 this index edged up to 53.7% – this still means the non-manufacturing is expanding and at a slightly faster pace than before; this index may affect forex and commodities trading;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of June 30th; in the previous report, natural gas storage rose by 57 Bcf to 3,063 Bcf;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 29th; in the recent weekly report for June 22nd, stockpiles rose by 2.6 million bl to 1,798 million bl;

Friday July 6th

08:00 – Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves: the central bank of Switzerland will publish the total value of its foreign currencies reserves during June;

09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for June 2012; in the last report regarding May the input price declined by 2.5% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the previous employment report for May 2012, unemployment remained 7.3%; the employment also didn’t change. the upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently also affect the rates of energy commodities including oil and natural gas; Canada is among the leading exporters of these commodities to the U.S (see here the recent report);

13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the recent report regarding May 2012, the labor market didn’t grow much as it did during the first quarter as the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by only 69k; the U.S unemployment rate edged up to 8.2%; if the upcoming report will continue to show low growth around 100 thousand mark (in additional jobs), this may raise the chances of the Fed introducing additional stimulus plan in 2012; this report might affect not only the U.S dollar, but also gold and silver prices (see here my last review on the U.S employment report).

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