Weekly Outlook for 28 November – 2 December

Following the slow trade from last week due to Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday in the U.S., many anticipate a high volume of trade coming Monday. The upcoming week, which is also the last week of November, brings many news items that may affect forex and commodities markets including: U.S. new home sales report, U.S. labor report, Canada’s GDP report, Euro-Area Inflation rate and U.S. consumer confidence report. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of November 28th to December 2nd that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Europe and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday 28th of November 09:00 – Monetary Developments in the Euro Area: This monthly report will demonstrate the development of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during October 2011. In the previous September report, the annual growth rate for M3 sharply rose again to 3.1%. The M1 also inclined to 3.0%. The annual growth rate of loans to private sector remained unchanged at 2.7% in September. If the M1 and M3 will continue to inclined in October it could serve as another indicator of an expected rise in Euro Area inflation and  may affect ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision (see here the last report);
  2. Monday 28th of November 15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will show the changes in the real estate market during October 2011 in particular the new home sales in the U.S.; in the recent report (September 2011), the sales of new homes reached an annual rate of 313,000 – a 5.7% decline compared with the number of new homes sold in August 2011, and the sales in September 2011 was 0.9% above the home sales rate in September 2011; if this downward trend will progress, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market and may adversely affect commodities prices;
  3. Tuesday 29th of November 15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: in the last report, the consumer confidence index slightly fell in October compared to September. The current expectations are that this index may continue to drop in the November report; this report could affect commodities markets including the natural gas market;
  4. Wednesday 30th of November 11:00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (November): the inflation in Euro Area remained at 3.0% in October. But the recent interest rate reduction may raise the inflation pressures. If the upcoming flash estimate will present a rise in the inflation rate, it may lower the chances of an additional ECB interest rate reduction;
  5. Wednesday 30th of November 13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will provide an estimate in the U.S employment for the month of November;
  6. Wednesday 30th of November 13:30 – Canada GDP by Industry: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for September 2011. In the previous report regarding August 2011, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in August, following a 0.4% increase in July 2011. The August increase was stem in part from an increased in finance and insurance sectors. This report might affect the trade on the Canadian dollar currency and consequently major commodities prices (for the full previous report);
  7.  Wednesday 30th of November 15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the major changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for October 2011; in the recent September report there was decline in the pending home sales index by 4.6% compared with August’s index. This will be another indicator for the economic progress of the real estate market in the US;
  8. Wednesday 30th of November 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on November 25th; last week, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles slightly declined by 3.8 million barrels to 1,732.75 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  9. Wednesday 30th of November 1:30 – Australian Retail Trade: The upcoming report will regard October 2011. In the recent report regarding September 2011, the seasonally adjusted retail trade slightly rose by 0.4% (M-2-M). This news may affect traders of AUD and consequently commodities prices that Australia exports  (see here last report);
  10. Wednesday 30th of November 2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the recent HSBC Manufacturing PMI report regarding September the PMI reached 50.4 – a slight decrease from the previous August index of 51.2; this index indicates the changes in China’s manufacturing sectors growth rate;
  11. Thursday 1st of December 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims rose by 2,000 to 393,000 claims for the week ending on November 19th; the number of insured unemployment inclined by 68K to 3.691  million during the week of November 12th; the upcoming report may affect forex and commodities markets;
  12. Thursday 1st of December 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the monthly change in manufacturing sector on a national level for November 2011. During October the index slightly fell to 50.8% a 0.8 percent point increase compared to September’s index; this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets (see here my review of last report);
  13. Thursday 1st of December 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Report: This week the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas report after it wasn’t published last week due to thanksgiving holiday; the report will analyze and report the natural gas storage and price changes for the week ending on November 25th. In the previous update, natural gas storage slightly rose for the thirty-third  consecutive week by 9 Bcf to 3,852 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  14. Friday 2nd of December 12:00 – Canada Unemployment Rate and Employment Report: In the last employment report for October 2011, unemployment rose by 0.2 percent points to 7.3%; the employment fell by 54k. If the upcoming report will show an improvement in the labor report in during November, this might strengthen the Canadian dollar against the USD and consequently might affect the prices of energy commodities that Canada export to the U.S including crude oil and natural gas prices (see here previous report);
  15. Friday 2nd of December 13.30 – U.S. Unemployment Rate Report & Non-farm Employment Change: in the recent November report regarding October, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 80k; the U.S unemployment rate slightly slipped to 9.0%; the last report showed some improvement from the previous months, and may have traded down gold and silver during the first few days of November. This report could affect not only the U.S dollar, but also commodities prices such as gold and silver prices (see my last review on the U.S labor report).

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