Weekly outlook for July 18-22

In the upcoming week the indicators regarding the US housing market will be published such as the US housing starts; Canadian rate will be decided; US TIC long term purchases; Ben Bernanke to testify and many more news items are coming ahead in this busy week.  Here is an economic news calendar for the week of July 18th to July 22nd that highlights the main news items and reports related to Europe, U.S, China, Australia and Canada.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 18th of July 14:00 – US TIC long term purchases: This report of the Treasury International Capital shows the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries during May 2011. In the previous report regarding April 2011, the net foreign purchases reached $30.6 billion; the increase in purchases was mainly driven by China. In the upcoming report there might continue to be a rise in purchases (see here my last review of April 2011);
  2. Monday 18th of July 2.30 – Monetary Policy meeting Australia’s Bank : The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia will be published; it shows the main domestic and international factors that affected the board’s decisions on the Bank’s basic interest rate which is at 4.75%; this decision might also affect the AUD/USD and if so may have an effect on major commodities including gold and crude oil (see here last rate decision);
  3. Tuesday 19th of July 13.30 – U.S. Building Permits: The recent report showed an improvement as the adjusted annual rate reached 612,000 building permits in May 2011, which is 8.7% above the April rate of 563,000 building permits. If this report will continue to show a rise in the building permits rate, it may indicate the housing market in the US is pulling out of its recession (see here the recent report);
  4. Tuesday 19th of July 13.30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The additional figure to be published by the US Census Bureau involves the US housing starts; this figure was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rise the following day gold price usually declined (even when controlling to the US dollar effect); in the last report the adjusted annual rate reached 560,000 in May 2011, which is 3.5% above the April rate of 541,000 (see here the recent report);
  5. Tuesday 19th of July 14.00 – Canada overnight rate: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision about the overnight interest rate, which remained unchanged in the last decision made on May 31st at 1%.  Economists speculate that the BOC will keep the rate unchanged, despite the recent hike in the inflation rate, which was mainly driven from the high energy prices. This decision could affect the CAD/USD; there are strong correlations among the Canadian dollar and major commodities that export including crude oil and gold;
  6. Wednesday 20th of July 15:00 – U.S. existing home sales: This report shows the major changes in existing home sales in the U.S. for June 2011; in the  recent report related to May there was a drop in number of homes sold by 3.8% to an annual rate of 4.81  million, despite the rise during the previous months (see here the recent report);
  7. Wednesday 20th of July 15:30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum report; last week the US oil stocks inclined again last week by 4.314 million barrels, or by 0.24% – the highest injection since May 27th. For the week ending on July 8th crude oil stocks reached 1,796 million barrels – the highest stockpiles since February 4th, 2011 (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  8. Thursday 21st of July 13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims: For the week ending on July 9th, initial claims decreased by 22,000, as it reached 405,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3% for the week ending on July 2nd; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.727 million, an increase of 15,000 compared with the previous week’s. (see here my recent review on the US Labor market);
  9. Thursday 21st of July 15.00 – Ben Bernanke, Chairman of Fed, testifies: The Federal Reserve chairman’s is expected to testify at the Dodd Frank Act Anniversary, in Washington DC. In his last testimony before the US House of Representatives, Bernanke opened the door for stimulus plans in the near future if the US economy won’t turn around; this news might have been among the reasons the US dollar declined sharply during last week; he might consider reversing his position and reassure the market that the Fed won’t consider in the near future a quantitative easing plan (read here his last testimony);
  10. Thursday 21st of July 15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the natural gas started to cool down; the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on July 15th. In the recent report, natural gas storage inclined by 3.3% or by 84 Bcf; as a result, the natural gas storage inclined to 2.611 billion cubic feet; the natural gas storage is still 2% below the 5-year average (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  11. Friday 22nd of July 13.00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will pertain June 2011 and will show the main changes in the core consumer price index which excludes the most volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for May 2011, the CPI rose by 3.7% in 12 month up to May, the largest increase since March 2003. The main reason for this rate is related to the energy prices that increased by 16.6% during the 12 months up to May 2011.


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