Weekly Outlook for 9-13 January

Following the sharp gains in commodities prices during the first week of 2012, the second week of 2012 might continue this direction pending the new reports and decisions that will be made during the week. Some of the news items and decisions include: ECB’s rate decision, U.S. retail sales, China’s CPI, and US and Canada’s trade balance reports. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of January 9th to January 13th that highlights the main news items and decisions related to the U.S., China, UK, Canada and Euro Area.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday 9th of January 11:00 – German Industrial Production: this report will present the growth during November of Germany’s industrial production and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently may influence forex and commodities traders;
  2. Monday 9th of January 15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: this quarterly report  will provide  an analysis of Canada’s businesses and offer some insight of what is up ahead for Canada (see here the previous report);
  3. Tuesday 10th of January tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to Reuters China’s trade surplus will reach a four month high of $21.6 billion, but during 2011 China’s surplus has shrunk to $160 billion; if this trend will continue it could indicate that China’s economic growth is slowing down;
  4. Tuesday 10th of January – FOMC Members Speak: FOMC members Williams  and  Pianalto  will give speeches;
  5. Wednesday 11th of January 09:30 – Great Britain Trade Balance: In the previous report  regarding October 2011, UK’s seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit of goods and services contracted from £4.3 billion in September to £1.6 billion in October; if this trade balance deficit will continue to shrink it could affect GBP;
  6. Wednesday 11th of January 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 6th; in the recent report, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles rose by 3.4 million barrels to 1,740.26 million barrels (see here the recent oil stockpiles review);
  7. Wednesday 11th of January 3:30 – Chinese CPI: in November, the Chinese inflation rate sharply fell compared with October’s CPI and reached an annual rate of 4.2% (it was 5.5% in October); this rate is coming very close to China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. The sharp drop in the inflation rate is probably an indication of the effect of the steps taken by the People Bank of China’s to curb the inflation pressures;
  1. Thursday 12th of January 09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production : this monthly report will show the month to month change in the British manufacturing production in November; in the previous report regarding October  the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index fell by 0.7% (M-2-M), and the index of production also slipped by 0.7%; this news may influence forex and commodities traders;
  2. Thursday 12th of January 12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan : Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for January 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of December the BOE’s rate remained unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £275 billion continued;
  3. Thursday 12th of January 13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims fell by 15,000 to 372,000 claims for the week ending on December 31st; the number of insured unemployment declined by 22k to 3.595 million during the week of December 24th; the upcoming report may influence forex and commodities traders;
  4. Thursday 12th of January 13:30 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: In the upcoming rate decision the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will have to consider the ongoing peril in which the EU is facing vis-à-vis the debt crisis, and the recent Euro stat release showing that the Euro Area inflation rate declined to an annual rate of 2.8% (annual terms) in December. This fall in inflation comes despite ECB’s decision to cut last month the EU rate to 1.00%. These two considerations might tilt the odds towards another rate reduction, if not in the upcoming ECB rate decision, then perhaps in the next one. If ECB will cut again interest rates it is likely to pressure down the Euros to US dollar exchange rate;
  5. Thursday 12th of January 13:30 – Changes in U.S. Retail Sales: this report will present the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services during December; in the recent November report, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly inclined by 0.2% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales decreased by 0.1% in November compared with October 2011, but were 12.9% above sales in November 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand (see here my review of the recent report).
  6. Thursday 12th of January 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: in the upcoming weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will analyze and report the changes for the week ending on January 6th on natural gas storage, production, demand and prices. In the last report, natural gas storage declined by 76 Bcf to 3,472 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here the recent review on the natural gas market);
  7. Friday 13th of January 09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for December 2011; in the last report regarding November the input price rose by 0.1% (M-2-M); this news may influence British Pound traders;
  8. Friday 13th of January 13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the December report regarding October 2011, imports rose while exports decreased during the month: exports decreased by 3.0%, and imports inclined by 1.9%; as a result, the trade surplus fell from $1 billion in September to a deficit of $885 million in October; exports of energy products decreased by 5.8%, to $8.9 billion, and exports of industrial goods and materials also declined by 6.0% to $9.8 billion;
  9. Friday 13th of January 13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for November  2011 will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance report for October 2011 the goods deficit decreased by $0.7 billion compared with September 2011 and reached $58.8 billion; the service surplus remained virtually unchanged at $15.8 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit declined during the month to $43.5 billion.



For further reading:

Monthly Analysis and Outlook:

 Previous Reports: